U.S.-Turkey Defense Cooperation: Navigating the S-400 Dilemma
Recent Diplomatic Engagements
President Trump and President Erdogan recently convened at the White House, marking a notable moment in U.S.-Turkey relations. This meeting yielded several significant business agreements, encompassing collaborative efforts in civilian nuclear energy. Discussions also addressed broader geopolitical issues, such as Russia’s offensive in Ukraine and the complex situation in Syria. However, the most critical area of focus was defense collaboration between the United States and Turkey.
The Current State of Defense Relations
Turkey’s defense sector has rapidly evolved, achieving global recognition for its domestic manufacturing capabilities. Particularly, Turkish drones have gained prominence, with strong demand across Asia, Africa, and Europe. While defense ties between the U.S. and Turkey are robust, there remains substantial potential for enhancement. A lingering point of contention is Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system, which has resulted in Ankara’s expulsion from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.
Background of the S-400 Acquisition
In 2015, following the shootdown of a Russian fighter jet that breached Turkish airspace, Ankara’s air defense vulnerabilities became apparent. Consequently, NATO deployed Patriot missile systems along Turkey’s southern border, exemplifying the urgency of addressing these threats. Turkey sought to procure Patriots but negotiations faltered, primarily due to Ankara’s demand for technology transfer and domestic production rights, leading it to explore alternatives, notably the S-400.
By 2017, Turkey finalized its S-400 order, with delivery occurring in 2019. This procurement triggered valid concerns within the U.S. regarding a NATO member operating an advanced Russian system while simultaneously managing F-35 aircraft. The primary anxiety centered on the possibility of Russian surveillance of sensitive F-35 data, prompting Turkey’s formal removal from the F-35 program.
Cautious Utilization of the S-400
Despite acquiring the S-400, Turkey has employed a cautious approach. Thus far, the system has been operationally inactive, with only a single live-fire exercise conducted in 2020. Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler noted that the S-400 would only be activated in response to significant threats, such as an airstrike. As Turkey enhances its own air defense capabilities, the S-400 has not been integrated into its broader defense network, named the “Steel Dome.”
Addressing the S-400 Roadblock
Resolving the S-400 issue is imperative for strengthening U.S.-Turkey defense relations. Several potential solutions have emerged:
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Mimicking Existing Arrangements: One proposal involves following the precedent set by Greece with the S-300 system, which is stored and used minimally for training, thereby avoiding daily operational conflicts.
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Transfer or Sale Options: Less conventional suggestions include the sale of the S-400 to another nation or potentially returning it to Russia. Another idea is to donate or sell the system to Ukraine, although such a transfer would likely face significant political hurdles.
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Creative Deployment Strategies: An innovative approach is the “Nakhchivan Solution,” which involves relocating the S-400 to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave. This would effectively remove the system from Turkish soil, mitigating U.S. and NATO concerns while maintaining operational readiness and Turkish ownership.
Strategic Considerations
Deploying the S-400 to Nakhchivan aligns with the deepening military ties between Turkey and Azerbaijan, based on longstanding cultural and historical connections. Additionally, the geopolitical environment favors such a move:
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Diminished Regional Response Capability: Russia and Iran, the primary nations likely to oppose this deployment, are currently unable to project their interests effectively. Iran’s capacity to respond is significantly restricted, while Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus is eroding, as illustrated by recent diplomatic efforts involving Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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U.S. Perspectives on the S-400’s Capabilities: Given the mixed performance of the S-400 in operational contexts, it may be prudent for U.S. policymakers to moderate their assessment of the system’s effectiveness. Although formidable, the S-400 has not consistently performed to expectations, with reported instances of Ukrainian strikes successfully neutralizing its capabilities.
Future Directions
With over six years having passed since Turkey’s integration into the S-400 program and subsequent exclusion from the F-35 initiative, a resolution is overdue. A strategic, multifaceted solution—particularly one that can be showcased at the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey—would not only address ongoing defense cooperation issues but also strengthen transatlantic ties. It is critical to explore creative avenues that not only satisfy the interests of the involved parties but also promote enhanced security cooperation across the NATO alliance.
