Analysis of China’s Recent Military Exercises Around Taiwan

Overview of Recent Drills

In late December, China conducted a significant two-day military exercise in the waters surrounding Taiwan, marking the largest such operation in over three years. This exercise, termed “Justice Mission 2025,” demonstrated an escalation in military posturing aimed at deterring U.S. involvement in any potential conflict over Taiwan.

Key Highlights:

• Proximity: The drills occurred within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan’s coastline, an unprecedented approach that underscores increasing tensions.
• Operational Scale: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command engaged multiple assets in five designated maritime zones, focusing on potential blockades of key Taiwanese air and sea routes.

Military Capabilities on Display

A rocket artillery unit conducted live-fire exercises, launching projectiles into the contiguous zone off Taiwan’s coast. Notably absent were aircraft carriers, typically present in previous drills designed to project power and deter outside intervention.

Tactical Complexity

• Diverse Missions: Analysts noted that the exercises featured a variety of missions and tactics, illustrating an evolution in China’s military strategy.
• Expansion of Operational Zones: According to Chen Yi-fan, an academic at Tamkang University, the geographical range of the maneuvers was broader than in past exercises, enhancing the complexity of operational planning.

Contextual Factors

China has asserted territorial claims over Taiwan for more than seventy years, threatening military action if necessary. This assertion has intensified following Taiwan’s elections, with the current president, Lai Ching-te, perceived by Beijing as a pro-independence figure. Diplomatic communication between the two entities has largely stagnated since 2016.

Historical Precedents

The most significant previous drill occurred in August 2022, responding to then-U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. This operation involved extensive air sorties, missile tests, and naval deployments, setting a precedent for the scale of military activity in the region.

Operational Responses and Effects

Taiwan’s National Defense Ministry reported tracking 60 Chinese military sorties—including fighters, bombers, and drones—within a 24-hour period concluding on December 30. Of these, 44 aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, indicating a marked increase in PLA activity in contested airspace.

Civilian Impact

The simulated blockades orchestrated by the PLA temporarily disrupted hundreds of civilian flights, particularly those connecting Taiwan with its outlying islands, amplifying concerns regarding public safety and normalcy in daily life.

Motivating Factors Behind the Drills

The December exercises were precipitated by various geopolitical events, including:

• An $11.1 billion U.S. arms package to Taiwan
• Taiwan’s commitment to increase its defense budget

This U.S. assistance is perceived as a strategic counter to the PLA’s blockading capabilities, according to Sean Su, a businessperson and political analyst.

The Broader U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

The U.S. maintains a complex stance regarding Taiwan, as established by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which permits military support in the event of an attack. However, the specifics of U.S. intervention remain deliberately ambiguous, reinforcing a cautious diplomatic balance with Beijing.

The Sustainability of Military Operations

Critics, including Sean Su, have voiced skepticism about the PLA’s ability to maintain prolonged military operations, particularly blockades, under conditions of enemy fire and logistical constraints. Such skepticism invites further scrutiny of China’s military readiness and tactical efficacy in a prolonged confrontation.

Conclusion: Assessing PLA Statements

Following the exercises, Senior Captain Li Xi of the PLA Eastern Theater Command declared the drills a success, affirming the command’s commitment to maintaining high readiness levels against perceived “Taiwan Independence” threats.

Taiwan’s Response

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council condemned the recent drills as “irrational,” citing their disruptive impact on civilian life and security, and characterized them as attempts to alter the existing state of cross-Strait relations.

As the geopolitical dynamics between China and Taiwan evolve, monitoring military drills and responses from both sides will be crucial in understanding the implications for regional security and international relations.