China’s Rare Earth Export Restrictions: A Strategic Wake-Up Call for the U.S. Defense Industry
In recent months, the geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically as China begins to tighten its grip on the export of critical rare-earth minerals. This move not only spotlights a vulnerability in the supply chains essential to U.S. military capabilities but heralds an urgent need for a strategic reassessment.
Understanding the Importance of Rare Earth Elements
Rare earth elements play an indispensable role in modern technology, particularly within the defense sector. From tungsten, which reinforces armor-piercing rounds, to gallium, a key component in advanced radar systems, these materials are foundational to a plethora of military applications. The U.S. Defense Department’s warfighting capabilities have grown increasingly reliant on these elements, establishing a supply chain that heavily favors China for both mining and refinement.
Recent Developments: Export Controls from China
In April 2025, the Chinese government announced significant export controls on seven rare earth elements, citing national security as the driving factor. These elements—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium—are utilized in advanced technologies, including laser-guided weapons and medical imaging equipment. The newly imposed licensing requirements signal a tightening of previously accessible resources, instigating alarm bells within the U.S. defense community.
Dan Darling of Forecast International articulated the concern, emphasizing that while the restrictions are not outright bans, they will undoubtedly introduce uncertainty, curtailing reliable access to critical components. This echoes similar export controls China initiated in December 2024 targeting gallium, germanium, and antimony—materials integral to semiconductors and high-tech munitions.
Dependence on Chinese Supply Chains
The growing reliance on China for rare earth elements presents a critical vulnerability for the U.S. military. A report from Govini highlights alarming statistics: contracts for five crucial minerals have surged 23.2% annually, with gallium-related contracts skyrocketing by 41.8% per year. Approximately 78% of all Department of Defense (DoD) weapons now rely on these materials, with the Navy displaying a staggering 91% dependency.
To illustrate the strategic risk, consider gallium—an essential mineral in GPS systems and radar technology. Following China’s export restrictions, prices for components containing gallium surged by 6%, while other component prices increased by an average of only 1.4%. Such price volatility raises questions about the sustainability of U.S. military readiness in the face of supply chain disruptions.
The Crucial Chokepoint: Refinement
While mining itself is a hurdle, the greater challenge lies in the refinement process, which heavily favors China. The U.S. often ships raw minerals to China for processing before bringing them back as usable components. Beijing’s restrictions now threaten to close this loop completely. Notably, 88% of the DoD’s critical mineral supply chains remain vulnerable to Chinese influence, as nearly all antimony used in key military platforms, such as the F-16 and Minuteman III missile systems, encounters Chinese processing at some stage.
A Growing List of Vulnerabilities
Even hypothetical future independence from the five critical minerals may not shield the U.S. from additional vulnerabilities. Magnesium, for example, is vital for airframes and missiles and remains predominantly sourced from China. Other essential materials, such as graphite and fluorspar, crucial for rocket propulsion and nuclear fuel processing, are similarly under Chinese market control.
Strategizing for Independence
As the specter of dependence on foreign resources looms, various strategies can be pursued to regain control over critical mineral supply chains. First and foremost, reviving domestic processing capacity is paramount. The U.S. currently lacks sources for gallium, germanium, and tungsten, although recent federal investments show promise in reversing this trend.
For instance, the Kennecott mine in Utah has decreased reliance on imported tellurium from 95% in 2019 to just 25% in 2023. There’s also potential in exploiting mineral companionability—in which critical minerals often coexist. Regulators could restructure mining permits to accelerate the extraction of these minerals, as seen in a zinc mine in Tennessee projected to yield significant quantities of germanium and gallium annually.
Further, leveraging technology such as artificial intelligence can enhance the discovery of untapped mineral deposits across the U.S., integrating overlooked commercial suppliers into the defense ecosystem. Finally, establishing strategic stockpiles is crucial; minerals like gallium and tellurium lack existing government reserves, despite their critical roles in defense.
Confronting a Growing Strategic Vulnerability
As the landscape of global supply chains becomes increasingly precarious, America’s dependence on China for critical minerals signifies a glaring and growing strategic vulnerability. Unless immediate and multifaceted actions are undertaken, this dependence threatens to dictate not only the operational readiness of U.S. defense forces but also the broader dynamics of global power and security. The time for a comprehensive response is now, as America assesses not just military budgets or troop strength, but the elemental deficiencies that could shape its future capabilities.
