Sino-Russian Submarine Patrol: An Evolving Alliance

Recent Developments in Submarine Cooperation

In a notable illustration of their deepening military partnership, Chinese and Russian submarines recently executed a joint patrol. While only two submarines participated in the exercise, the gesture signals a potential alignment that warrants strategic consideration from the United States and its allies.

Implications for U.S. Defense Strategy

The recent naval activity serves as a significant deterrent, according to Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at a prominent defense think tank. His analysis indicates that while a simultaneous confrontation with the West by both nations may seem implausible, the mere perception of such an alliance has strategic implications.

• Deterrence Strategy: Goldstein suggests the exercise is designed to project strength and unity, subtly pressuring Western nations to reassess their strategies.

Milestones in Military Trust

China and Russia are framing the joint patrol as a milestone in their military collaboration. A Chinese military analyst remarked that this first joint submarine operation reflects a “high level of strategic mutual trust.” The necessity for sophisticated technical capabilities and profound exchanges underscores the complexity of maintaining submarine communication during operations.

Operational Details

The patrol involved the Russian submarine Volkhov alongside a Chinese counterpart, supported by two Russian surface vessels—a corvette and a submarine rescue ship. The task was conducted in August, transiting through the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan. This maneuver followed an earlier joint anti-submarine drill that drew in surface ships and aircraft.

• Distance Covered: The Volkhov traversed approximately 2,000 miles, concluding its mission at Vladivostok.

Technical Compatibility

Both submarines involved in the operation are Kilo-class vessels, a type originally designed by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, known for their low acoustic signatures. This designation likely facilitated operational compatibility between the two nations. Goldstein notes:

• Strategic Choice: The use of Kilo-class submarines allows for streamlined exercises, given China’s past procurement of this class from Russia, suggesting shared capabilities.

The Non-Inclusion of Nuclear Assets

One noteworthy aspect of this joint exercise is the exclusion of nuclear-powered submarines, a decision likely motivated by the desire to withhold advanced operational capacities from a partner that might also be perceived as a future competitor. Goldstein posits that current military collaborations do not extend to nuclear assets, indicating caution on both sides.

Historical Context of Sino-Russian Relations

While there is an apparent camaraderie today, the relationship between China and Russia has historically been complex, marked by past military confrontations and ideological rifts. Both nations once stood as allies in the 1950s but faced significant tensions through events such as the 1969 border clashes.

• Historical Tensions: Soviet leaders considered military action against China, and there remains an undercurrent of suspicion regarding territorial claims, particularly concerning the Russian Far East.

Future Trajectory of the Alliance

Looking forward, the extent and depth of Sino-Russian collaboration will depend on how both powers navigate their historical grievances. The choice to utilize aging warships in joint exercises—rather than advanced, next-generation technology—suggests a cautious approach to integration.

• Integration Challenges: Although sharing a common military heritage, the compatibility of operational practices remains an obstacle. Richard Moss, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, emphasizes that the current level of cooperation does not equate to the integrated training routines seen among NATO allies.

Strategic Responses to Western Alliances

The joint patrol may also represent a strategic counter to Western alliances, notably AUKUS, the trilateral security pact involving Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States that focuses on nuclear submarine development. Goldstein notes:

• Monitoring AUKUS Developments: Evidence suggests that Chinese military strategists are closely observing AUKUS, viewing enhanced Sino-Russian cooperation in undersea warfare as a tactical response to HUKUS concerns.

Conclusion

Sino-Russian military collaboration is evolving, characterized by practical cooperation rather than emotional camaraderie. The future of this alliance hinges on the strategic calculus of both nations, particularly regarding nuclear capabilities. As both powers march forward, the U.S. and its allies must remain vigilant, responsive, and adaptive to the shifting dynamics of this blossoming axis.

The road ahead will likely involve a nuanced balancing act, rooted in historical awareness and a reluctant recognition of shared interests, as both nations endeavor to fortify their respective positions on the global stage.