The Evolving Landscape of Warfare: Cruise Missiles and Strike Drones as Dominant Instruments

The discourse on future warfare trends presently presents two contrasting narratives. For the past two years, drones and artillery have been viewed as the pinnacle of military advancements. However, the June 2025 conflict between Iran and Israel has rejuvenated arguments in favor of stealth aircraft, such as the F-35, as crucial components of modern combat.

Nevertheless, neither perspective adequately addresses the persistent effectiveness and cost-efficiency of cruise missiles.

Analyzing Recent Conflicts

Ukraine: A Shift in Paradigm

In February 2022, the Russian incursion into Ukraine was initially stymied by artillery, infantry-support systems, including MANPADs and Javelin missiles, as well as critical logistical failures on the Russian side. As the conflict progressed and high-value munitions became scarce, non-traditional actors—such as remote-controlled aircraft enthusiasts—developed weaponized drones.

Although the concept of drones was first exploited by ISIS in the 2010s, these innovators have since constructed a variety of both single-use and reusable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). By 2025, drones had emerged as a dominant force in both terrestrial and naval operations, contributing significantly to combatant losses. Moreover, they were utilized beyond Ukraine’s borders to target Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, suggesting a transformative shift away from traditional weapon systems.

Israel: Reinforcing Conventional Air Superiority

In contrast, Israel’s recent military operations defy the drone-centric narrative. Utilizing quick precision airstrikes in conjunction with stealth F-35 jets, Israel demonstrated its capability to conduct aerial operations unchallenged over Iranian territory. The nation’s special operations teams conducted successful maneuvers largely insulated from Iranian countermeasures, delivering significant blows to Iranian military capabilities. American B-2 stealth bombers played a pivotal role, inflicting damage on vital Iranian nuclear installations and swiftly concluding the conflict.

The Persistent Role of Cruise Missiles

Despite the competing narratives, one common thread runs through recent and historical conflicts: the low-altitude cruise missile, along with low-altitude strike drones.

Effectiveness in U.S. Military Operations

U.S. military engagements, from the Gulf War onwards, have frequently commenced with low-altitude cruise missile attacks, notably the Tomahawk. Although expensive, these missiles effectively incapacitate air defense systems, command-and-control centers, and other vital assets, facilitating subsequent military actions. Their proven track record in neutralizing high-value targets effectively justifies their costs.

• Survivability and Geographic Factors: Operating at low altitudes enables these munitions to elude detection and attacks from enemy air defenses, which commonly rely on line-of-sight to the target. The vast expanses of many countries complicate the feasibility of deploying sufficient air defense systems, making them less defensible against this form of strike.

Global Application

Countries such as the U.K., France, and Russia have similarly leveraged cruise missiles in the early stages of conflicts to optimize operational effectiveness.

Emerging Alternatives: Slow Attack Drones

In light of the expense associated with traditional cruise missiles, lower-cost alternatives have gained traction. Israeli Harpy, Iranian Shahed, and Ukrainian FP-1 models essentially serve as slower cruise missiles, utilizing propeller systems as opposed to turbofans. While often labeled as one-way attack drones, these devices functionally parallel their faster counterparts.

• Conflict Case Studies: The recent Iran-Israel, Russo-Ukrainian, and Azerbaijan-Armenian conflicts exemplify the destructive capabilities of low-altitude strike drones, which have systematically targeted military assets and infrastructure.

A Legacy of Impact

For the past 35 years, low-altitude cruise missiles and strike drones have repeatedly succeeded in:

• Disabling Air Defenses: Proving highly effective in neutralizing enemy air capabilities.
• Disrupting Command Networks: Significantly impairing enemy operations.
• Destroying Critical Infrastructure: Targeting vital resources like power plants and oil refineries.

Despite technological advancements in defense systems, combatants have struggled to counter this persistent threat effectively. The larger the nation, the more difficult it becomes to establish a robust defense, placing cruise missile systems in an advantageous operational framework.

Future Considerations

The initiation of military engagements with strike capabilities allows nations flexibility to pursue a range of tactics, from traditional ground assaults to aerial campaigns or even complete operational restraint. As manufacturing costs diminish and accessibility increases, the strategic importance of cruise missiles is set to escalate further.

The experiences witnessed in ongoing conflicts underscore the expectation that low-altitude cruise missiles and strike drones will remain the primary choice for initial engagements. Evidence from recent military actions suggests their combination of high survivability, success rates, and cost efficiency will cement their status as essential instruments for major military powers in any forthcoming conflicts.

Michael Bohnert, an engineer at RAND, specializes in defense industrial bases and the acquisition of naval, aerial, unmanned, and air defense systems.