The Western Balkans: A Barometer of Europe’s Evolving Security Landscape in 2025

Introduction

As of 2025, the Western Balkans have emerged as a pivotal indicator of the shifting security dynamics in Europe. The region is experiencing significant militarization, evolving alliances, and an influx of external influences, all exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This changing landscape exposes vulnerabilities while also pressing regional nations to modernize their defense capabilities. A multitude of external actors—including Türkiye, Russia, and China—are vying for strategic leverage within both the EU and NATO frameworks, complicating the security environment.

Historical Context and Current Importance

Traditionally viewed as a troubled corner of Europe, characterized by persistent ethnic violence and unresolved historical grievances, the Western Balkans are now under a transformative lens. The impact of the conflict in Ukraine has shifted the perception of this region from a peripheral concern to a focal point in Europe’s security architecture. Currently, the Western Balkans are not simply reacting to geopolitical shifts; they are actively readjusting their defense postures and reinforcing their military frameworks.

Defense Modernization and Budgetary Trends

• Increasing Defense Budgets: Several nations in the West Balkans are witnessing substantial hikes in their defense expenditures. Countries are seeking double-digit increases to bolster their military capabilities. For instance:

  • Kosovo: The defense budget for 2025 is approximately EUR 200 million, constituting 2% of GDP.
  • Serbia: Expected to reach around EUR 2.2 billion, reflecting an increase from 1.8% in 2023 to 2.5% of GDP.

• Conscription and Reserve Forces: The reintroduction of conscription in some countries, such as Croatia, speaks volumes about the renewed focus on mobilization and preparedness. Notably, Albania has designed a draft law to eventually establish a reserve force comprising 20-25% of active personnel.

• Focus on Modern Systems: Efforts are not solely concentrated on hardware acquisition; there’s an evident shift towards advanced technologies, including unmanned systems, cyber defense, and intelligence capabilities.

Evolving Alliances

The geopolitical landscape is being reshaped by new alliances and security agreements:

• Joint Defense Initiatives: In March 2025, Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo signed a Joint Defense Cooperation Declaration. This framework aims to enhance joint training, procurement coordination, and interoperability, reinforcing their commitment to Euro-Atlantic security.

• Serbia’s Balancing Act: While Serbia has engaged in a looser defense pact with Hungary, diversifying its partnerships, it remains cautious about provoking tensions with Russia, maintaining its self-identified position of military neutrality.

Türkiye’s Strategic Role

The influence of Türkiye in the Western Balkans is often overlooked but remains vital. Ankara’s historical connections in the region, combined with active military cooperation and significant economic investments, exemplify its strategic aspirations.

• Military Engagement: Türkiye has been integrated into regional security frameworks, historically contributing troops to peacekeeping operations. Its recent delivery of Bayraktar TB2 drones to Kosovo represents a substantial military engagement that has prompted warnings from Serbia about potential destabilization.

• Soft Power Investments: Through initiatives by the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TİKA), Türkiye has solidified cultural and economic ties, investing over EUR 1 billion in various projects that enhance its regional influence.

Challenges and Potential Flashpoints

Despite the potential for positive developments, the region remains susceptible to instability due to several factors:

Key Vulnerabilities

• Kosovo–Serbia Tensions: The unresolved political status of Kosovo presents an enduring risk. Serbia’s non-recognition of Kosovo’s independence complicates any defense cooperation, particularly highlighted by increasing military collaborations with Türkiye that anger Belgrade.

• Fragility in Bosnia and Herzegovina: The internal political structure remains precarious, especially within the Serb-run Republika Srpska. External influences from Türkiye, Serbia, and Russia can exacerbate existing divisions, increasing the risk of conflict.

External Actors and Strategic Competition

The involvement of various external players is reshaping the security landscape. With countries like Türkiye, Russia, China, and Gulf states competing for influence, the region’s strategic coherence is at risk:

• Multi-Vector Policies: Nations balance relationships among diverse powers, which can sometimes lead to dependence or fragmented defense strategies. For example, Serbia’s recent tensions with Russia highlight the complexities of its energy and defense ties.

• Economic Dependencies: As regional states navigate their military modernization, they are also wary of becoming overly reliant on particular external influences that could undermine their sovereignty.

Implications for European Security

On October 30, 2025, a Joint Action Plan aimed at countering terrorism was signed between the EU and Western Balkan nations, marking a significant step toward the gradual integration of these states into the European security framework. This partnership reflects an operational commitment to address emerging threats, including online radicalization and hybrid warfare.

• NATO Engagement: NATO’s role in ensuring regional stability remains critical. As members engage in EU missions and increase operational collaboration, burden-sharing becomes a focal point of strategic discussions.

Looking Ahead: Strategic Considerations for 2026

Several focal points will be critical to watch in the upcoming year:

• The operational effectiveness of new defense agreements among Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo.
• Serbia’s potential shifts toward Western alignment amid its traditional relationships with Russia and China.
• The resolution of ongoing tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s political structure.
• Choices surrounding military procurement, especially concerning Western versus Russian or Chinese platforms.
• The capacity of regional states to build resilience against hybrid threats and external coercion.

Conclusion

The Western Balkans can no longer be dismissed as merely a peripheral concern in Europe’s security context. The region is not only adapting to but also actively participating in the broader European defense landscape amidst ongoing geopolitical shifts. External actors will continue to vie for influence, while regional states redefine their defense priorities. For defense professionals and policymakers, the Western Balkans present both opportunities and challenges that require careful navigation in an increasingly complex security environment. An enhanced, coherent strategy from NATO and the EU is vital to promoting stability and security in this pivotal region.