Revolutionizing Defense Wargaming Through Generative AI

Introduction of the GenWar Lab

The emerging GenWar Lab, set to launch in 2026 at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, aims to fundamentally transform defense wargaming by integrating advanced generative artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. The laboratory’s mission is to enhance the efficacy of tabletop exercises by leveraging large language models (LLMs) akin to popular chatbots like ChatGPT, thereby allowing for quicker and more intuitive strategy adaptation.

Integrating AI into Wargames

By incorporating AI into military exercises, participants will benefit from swift experimentation with various strategic options. AI will play a dual role: assisting human players as virtual consultants and simulating adversarial decision-making. Such interaction opens up a plethora of exciting possibilities:

• Dynamic Player-AI Interaction: Players will be able to engage directly with complex AI models that form the backbone of the exercises.
• AI-Driven Scenarios: Wargames may be conducted solely by AI, representing both sides and exploring outcomes without human involvement.

Kevin Mather, head of the GenWar Lab, emphasized the increasing demand from sponsors for more expeditious wargaming, aiming for depth through enhanced modeling and simulation capabilities.

Historical Context and Current Challenges

Historically, wargaming has evolved from the 19th-century Prussian Army’s “kriegsspiel,” which involved Blue vs. Red team dynamics, to contemporary frameworks that face significant limitations. Traditional wargame design and adjudication processes can be labor-intensive and inflexible, minimizing opportunities for replay or the integration of learned lessons. Key challenges include:

• Resource-intensive design
• Limited capacity for scenario re-evaluation
• Inadequate mechanisms to incorporate changes based on expert feedback

The potential of AI to facilitate multiple iterations could address these shortcomings. For example, should a strategy prove impractical, GenWar Lab’s AI can “rewind” gameplay, enabling players to reconsider their options and conduct thorough analyses post-exercise.

Enhanced Tools for Wargaming

The GenWar Lab employs an array of sophisticated tools to enhance the wargaming experience. These include:

• GenWar TTX for creating the digital landscape and managing AI entities during exercises.
• GenWar Sim, based on the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration and Modeling (AFSIM), which allows participants to interact with physics-based adjudication models.

This synergy enables straightforward communication between human commands and the mathematical models in use, facilitating a seamless experience.

Mather illustrates this by describing the straightforward interaction during gameplay: “When a player commands, ‘I want to attack here,’ our system interprets and executes that directive, streamlining decision-making.”

AI’s Role: Assistance, Not Replacement

While the efficiency of AI in wargaming raises important questions regarding autonomy, Mather and project managers clarify that AI is designed to supplement traditional methodologies rather than supplant them. AI systems will not always provide optimal solutions; however, they offer valuable ‘good enough’ responses that can propel human learning and strategy exploration.

• Human-AI Collaboration: AI should be viewed as a partner that can accelerate thought processes without replacing the nuance of human judgment, particularly in complex scenarios.

Challenges and Considerations

Despite the promise of integrating AI into wargames, concerns persist regarding the quality and reliability of AI decision-making. Critics, including Benjamin Jensen from the Center for International and Strategic Studies, caution against reducing strategic assessments to simplistic outputs from LLMs. Essential considerations include:

• The need for rigorous documentation and evaluation of AI’s role in wargaming.
• Ensuring that foundational models used in AI applications are adequately benchmarked against real-world strategy and statecraft nuances.

The challenge lies in navigating the balance between maximizing AI’s capabilities and maintaining the rigor necessary for sound strategic analysis.

Conclusion

As generative AI becomes increasingly embedded in military training and operations, the GenWar Lab stands at the forefront of redefining wargaming. By marrying AI technology with traditional practices, defense analysts can anticipate a new era in military strategy development that promises not only efficiency but also deeper insights into complex decision-making processes. The evolution of wargaming through AI integration offers a robust framework for exploring multiple strategic avenues, equipping military professionals with the tools necessary to adapt to an ever-changing global security landscape.